WASHINGTON – If you hear a big whooshing sound in January when the next Congress is sworn in, it’s the noise being made by Minnesota’s sudden loss of clout on Capitol Hill.
Whether Democrats succeed in flipping the U.S. Senate or the GOP hangs on to control of the chamber, the ability of Minnesota’s senators to funnel money to the state and look out for its interests will be diminished.
That’s because power in the Senate is largely determined by seniority, which is going to take a nosedive as far as Minnesota is concerned.
Since Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, if Sen. Amy Klobuchar is elected governor there will be two freshmen senators representing the state instead of a seasoned veteran and another lawmaker who was skillfully climbing the ranks.
One of the newcomers will be whoever wins the Smith’s seat, which is being fought over by Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former sportscaster Michele Tafoya.
The other freshman would be the person Klobuchar selects to fill out the last four years of her term. That person could be the one with the absolute least seniority in the Senate because she or he would be sworn in after all of the senators who are elected this week.
“It’s a big loss that she’s not going to be in the Senate,” University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs said of Klobuchar.
He considers Klobuchar “one of the most effective senators” in that chamber.
Jacobs said Klobuchar’s ability to form relationships and work across the aisle on issues of common interest – a skill that was helped by her moderate stance – has helped her become so effective.
Klobuchar became the first woman to represent Minnesota in the U.S. Senate when she was elected in 2006.
Since then, she has deftly secured seats on key committees, including the wide-ranging Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee and the Judiciary Committee.
To better serve Minnesota’s agriculture interests, Klobuchar rose to become a senior member of the Senate Agriculture Committee and was slated to become chairman of that committee if Democrats win the Senate.
To wrest the chamber from Republican hands, Democrats would have to keep all of their seats in Tuesday’s election and flip four additional seats. The chamber currently sits at a 53–47 Republican majority.
With a reputation as a workhorse, Klobuchar is usually among the top senators when it comes to introducing legislation – and getting bills through the Senate.
According to Legisletter, Klobuchar has sponsored 1,422 bills and cosponsored 5,725 additional ones during her 19 years in the Senate.
Smith also benefited from the Senate’s long-established seniority system.
She was appointed in 2017 by former Gov. Mark Dayton to fill the rest of former Sen. Al Franken’s term after he resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, said Smith, a reliable progressive voice in the Senate, has grown in influence.
“And a lot of people seem to like her,” he said.
Smith has also become a member of the Democratic leadership as the Vice Chair of the Strategic Communications Committee.
Huder said the loss of both Klobuchar and Smith and their replacement with freshmen senators “is not an ideal situation.”
He said those new Minnesota senators would be pitted against their colleagues in procuring committee assignments and “given the least favorable assignments.”
“The Senate is very much a social institution, and those new senators will have to start from scratch,” Huder said.
When it comes to the U.S. House, the election could result in big changes for Minnesota’s lawmakers.
If Democrats win the House, as most political analysts predict, Rep. Betty McCollum, D-4th District, would be the biggest winner among the members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation.
If reelected, McCollum, now the top Democrat of the Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Defense, would chair that panel and would sit on at least one other Appropriations Committee panel.
Holding the pursestrings helps build clout, but so does experience and political acumen.
“Betty McCollum is a very effective advocate for Minnesota,” Jacobs said, especially when it comes to directing defense dollars to the state.
McCollum leans progressive and is a vocal critic of the Trump administration. Yet Jacobs said “the approach she has taken is less ideological and more pragmatic.”
That, and the sway she would have as a senior member of the Appropriations Committee, would allow McCollum to bargain with the administration for things that benefit the state, Jacobs said.
Jacobs also said Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who is slated to be Speaker of the House if it’s under Democratic control, “appreciates McCollum’s institutional knowledge.” The lawmaker has been in office since 2001.
A change of party control of the House would also benefit Rep. Kelly Morrison, D-3rd District, if she wins reelection.
The first pro-choice OBGYN to serve in Congress, Morrison is working to get on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Committee in the next Congress because it has jurisdiction over health care.
Morrison is a proponent of the “public option,” which would establish a government-run health plan, most likely modeled after Medicare, to provide an alternative to private insurers.
If she’s a member of the next Congress, Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-5th District, may seek to return to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, a panel she was ousted from in 2023 by House Republicans.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Republican lawmakers, if reelected, would suffer the most from the tsunami of political change.
Rep. Tom Emmer, R-6th District, who as majority whip is a member of the GOP House leadership, would be left scrambling to become a member of the leadership of a minority party.
Emmer said he would like to continue to be a whip in the new Congress. As a majority whip, Emmer is tasked to round up votes for GOP initiatives. As a minority whip, his job would be to stop Democratic priorities.
Yet Jacobs said he believes Emmer “has higher aspirations.”
The only higher office House Republicans have is minority leader, and there are already two Republicans – Reps. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and Steve Scalise, R-La. – who are considered frontrunners in the battle for leadership.
Still, Emmer campaigned vigorously for Republican candidates this summer and donated more than $22 million from his personal campaign account and his leadership political action committees to GOP candidates and party committees.
“He was building a coalition in front of our eyes,” Jacobs said. “Emmer has positioned himself for the current Congress and the future Congress.”
Rep. Pete Stauber, R-8th District, had set his sight on becoming the next chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, which has jurisdiction over public lands and mineral resources. But even if reelected, a flip of the House would put an end to Stauber’s aspirations.
Rep. Michelle Fischbach, R-7th District, would continue her climb up the powerful Ways and Means Committee and Rep. Brad Finstad, R-1st District, would advance in the House Agriculture Committee if both are reelected. But, as minority members of a House where Democrats control all committees, they would be handicapped if they wanted to move legislation forward.
It’s a certainty, whatever the results of the election, that there will be one freshman in Minnesota’s House delegation – the winner of the race for the 2nd District seat to replace outgoing Rep. Angie Craig. Her leaving Congress strips Minnesota of the lawmaker’s influence as the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.
The Democrat running for that open seat, Matt Little, said his first choice of committees would be House Oversight and Government Affairs.
That panel, which has held high-profile hearings on President Donald Trump’s political adversaries, including Gov. Tim Walz and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, is now dominated by Freedom Caucus members and other GOP conservatives.
But under Democratic control, that panel would be coveted by party progressives keen on pursuing investigations into Trump, his family and members of his administration. So Little would face a lot of competition for that job, even as his background as an attorney would make him a good fit.
Jacobs said Little has the skills and ambition to distinguish himself as a freshman. Although he’s a progressive, Jacobs said “there’s not much in his past that would demonstrate that he’s a flamethrower.”
Meanwhile, Little’s political opponent, Republican state Sen. Eric Pratt, said it is premature to consider committee assignments.
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