The prediction season continues to shift into high gear as we enter the final days until the 2026 midterm election.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, chimed in today and moved two critical Pennsylvania congressional races to the left.
The closely-watched 1st Congressional District contest between Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-01) and Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie is now a toss-up according to the group.
And the 8th Congressional District race between Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-08) and mayor of Scranton Paige Cognetti shifts from toss-up to leans Democrat.
One of the purplest districts in the country, PA-01 has been shifting left according to pollsters in this cycle.
“The aforementioned Siena Pennsylvania polling had Fitzpatrick down 2 points, a surprising finding given his electoral resilience,” wrote Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman. “To reflect the possibility of a Democratic megawave that pushes the party past 235 seats, we are moving several seats from Leans Republican to Toss-up. We may end up pushing many if not all of these races back to Leans Republican in our final ratings, though.”
In the northeastern Pennsylvania (NEPA) race, Cognetti has been riding the wave of unpopularity over President Donald Trump’s policies to her advantage.
“Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) has led Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) by five and four points, respectively, in a pair of recent nonpartisan surveys, one from the Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University and the other from Emerson College for Sean Trende’s new Poll Vault Substack,” the authors wrote.
The “Crystal Ball” now shows Democrats with a 225-193 edge in the chase for the majority with 17 races considered toss-ups.
